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I often get asked what I mean when I say the Fed is trapped. The US debt has exceeded 100% of GDP and is still going up relentlessly. Debt servicing is the lowest when interest rates are at their lowest levels, therefore, the Fed, despite being aware that inflation is destroying value and affecting Americans’ purchasing power, is kicking the can down the road rather than increasing rates to fight this inflation.

The reason is: every 1% hike to short rates costs the Treasury Department $150 billion a year in interest payments, which amounts to 4% of the total 2021 federal budget.

Fight inflation by increasing rates and crippling the US Government with debt servicing, due to the extreme high levels of debt?

Keep interest rates low, while inflation eats up value for consumers and crippling them?

Trapped.

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